Rumors

[Cobra348]

Over the last week or so, a couple things have come my way concerning Fords decision to essentially do away with passenger cars.

 

Rumor #1:

A friend went to Carlisle and during a discussion between a Ford rep and several Ford car owners, he remarked something to the effect that it would take Ford about 14 months to ramp up car production again.

 

Observation:

Ummmm, I can maybe believe 14 weeks because of how these companies always have some sort of backup plan, but months? <shakes head> Nope, can't accept that. I'm not brand-loyal as some others are so if I went to another brand, I certainly would not be into Ford "just because" - especially if I was happy with whatever I had at the time.

 

 

Rumor #2:

If you recall, articles that we may have seen about the demise of Fords passenger car lines did NOT mention Fusion. Have you ever wondered why? This rumor should make y'all happy if it turns out to be true.

 

FACT: Ranger comes back MY 19

FACT: Bronco returns MY 20

 

Now it gets interesting. For MY 21 the gas Fusions are gonna disappear and only the Hybrid and Energi lines will remain. Tied to this is some sort of rebate/discount plan for these products. That seems possible as it has been reported Ford is sinking a wad of cash into EV and HEV technologies.

 

Also in this same discussion was a passing remark that redesign of several product lines is in the works. I would assume Focus (for the new Active model), perhaps Mustang and F-150? I would think Fusion as well ... not only styling but trimming product lines to simplify things.

 

- - - - - - -

Those are 2 items that have come my way. RUMORS only ... unless someone here has info to prove or disprove 'em. Frankly I would like to see #2 come to pass.

Edited June 25, 2018 by Cobra348

[murphy]

The Energi at 25 miles on electric is not going to sell. The competition is already up to 47 miles for the same basic car.

[Cobra348]

The Energi at 25 miles on electric is not going to sell. The competition is already up to 47 miles for the same basic car.

Yeah. I know. For me it's the price difference between Hybrid and Energi MSRP that scared me off. An additional $1500 for a larger HVB that eliminates the pass-thru due to height and the plug-in ability that could potentially raise my electric bill. This based on the price diff between base Titanium models off the Ford build pages.

[Cobra348]

I have recently come across some info that makes rumor #2 somewhat shaky.

 

To wit ... Road & Track reported in April that the Hermosillo plant (our assembly plant) was to close by 2020. That would make the 2021 date in the rumor suspect. I will be seeing my source (a Ford employee) this week and see what he has to say about the matter. Will report back here.

[Waldo]

Ford has already stated that Hermosillo will not close and will have a new product.

[sschnath]

Observation:

Ummmm, I can maybe believe 14 weeks because of how these companies always have some sort of backup plan, but months?

 

14 months actually sounds aggressive. 14 weeks, no way. There are thousands of parts involved and while there are many shared parts between models it can take a long time to get the supply chain ready for anything not already in production.

 

And even just increasing the forecast for a part that is still in production and being used elsewhere doesn't happen immediately - there would still be lead time considerations for the additional raw material needed due to the forecast increase.

 

For instance, custom logic chips have a 6+ month lead time and that's just to get the chip built, never mind not having it built into another assembly elsewhere. Sometimes you can pay premiums to reduce lead time but that's not always possible and it only takes one critical part not being available to keep a car from being built.

 

Don't forget that Ford isn't the only company re-allocating production. In a booming economy, their suppliers and sub-tier suppliers will be shutting down their supporting lines and allocating that space to other projects too. They're not waiting around for Ford to change their mind. Even if it's an existing supplier relationship and they don't have to create new tooling, just bringing a line back up doesn't happen overnight even if Ford is paying them to keep the line available (which is possible but unlikely).

 

Not to mention restarting a line can come with its own headaches (same workers may not be available or they can be working with inaccurate documentation that was compensated for previously through tribal knowledge but the documentation was never updated, etc.).

 

Now coordinate that across many suppliers so that they're able to provide high-quality product at volume and have it all ready at the same time. 14 months sounds good to me.

[Cobra348]

Ford has already stated that Hermosillo will not close and will have a new product.

My source was on vacation, but was this statement made AFTER April of this year? Also, do you think the Fusion prices rise because of the tariffs being imposed? After all, the car is assembled in Mexico and I am sure there are parts from China and elsewhere in it. I wonder how much ... my wallet has only a certain amount of flex it can handle.

[Waldo]

Ford can't price individual models differently due to tariffs. Their strategy (as like most large corporations) is to hedge against tariffs by spreading production around, so you'll never see price spikes on individual models, instead Ford will absorb them and spread them around to everything.