Thanks everyone. I've been back and forth on this so many times I'm surprised I don't have whiplash. I was pretty much all set to buy the FFH Titanium but I've had trouble finding the right color/option combo. It turns out that I'm one of about 6 people who like the Ceramic interior and I really don't want a whole bunch of options on top of what the base Titanium offers. That's tough marriage, at least in these parts.
So here's some math and observations from my Spreadsheet-From-Hell:
1. I'm dealing with below invoice pricing from all dealers left in the running. Once you factor in the $4007 rebate on the Energi the prices are within a few hundred $'s
2. I'm looking at 5-year total costs for my calculations between Titanium FFH's and FFE's with basically the same options. I ran numbers with gas being $2.50, $3.50, and $4.00 per gallon. Energi Includes 240V charger cost and the $4007 rebate.
3. I used fueleconomy.gov for the FFE #s and simple mpg arithmetic for the FFH.
4. Residual values of either car are not factored in. I'm not sure how I'd even estimate that difference.
With charging it ALL the time and gas at:
$2.50/gal: Hybrid wins by $400
$3.50/gal: Energi wins by $800
$4.00/gal: Energi wins by $1500
Based on my driving profile I think I can do better than what fueleconomy.gov says but I did not extrapolate the numbers. So how did I arrive at the Hybrid decision? Basically it comes down to screwing around. For saving somewhere in the vicinity of $1000 over the course of 5 years at 0 degrees F I'm plugging, unplugging, always looking for power, dragging around extension cords in my teeny-tiny trunk, and feeling guilty if I couldn't get my 'fix' of AC Power to make this thing worth the money. It just didn't seem worth it to me for all of the hassle.
So some time later I sez to myself, I sez, "Self, what if you're so lazy that you NEVER plug it in over 5 years?"
I ran straight Hybrid performance numbers on Energi costs and pricing and came up with:
$2.50/gal: Hybrid wins by $1500
$3.50/gal: Hybrid wins by $1600
$4.00/gal: Hybrid wins by $1600
I think it's actually pretty interesting when you compare those 2 sets of numbers. Other than with gas at $2.50/gal I guess main take-away is that even if I wouldn't religiously charge it, say only charge it 1/2 the time or when it's convenient, the middle range of those sets of $/gal numbers is pretty darn close to zero difference over 5 years. Even where the Energi loses it's really not a meaningful number over a 60-month period. I personally don't think gas is going to be staying at $2.50 either but that's just me. If I had proof of that I'd be ordering a Tesla
So, I'm going to be buying a Titanium Energi tomorrow. If we don't plug it in, fine. If I plug it in all the time (which knowing me, I likely will), all the better.
Edited by 91er, 31 March 2015 - 12:48 AM.